據(ju)IHS Markit調(diao)查公司（NYSE:INFO）采購執行小(xiao)組（PEG）數據(ju)，被調(diao)查者均(jun)認為工程造價的下滑壓(ya)力將持續整個(ge)秋(qiu)季，導致行業對造價的未來預期(qi)達到歷(li)史新低。
經過連續41個月的增長(chang)后(hou)(hou)，建筑(zhu)工程造(zao)(zao)價(jia)在(zai)今年4月份(fen)首次出現了下跌(die)，繼3月份(fen)勉強位(wei)于基(ji)準指數(shu)后(hou)(hou)，4月份(fen)的造(zao)(zao)價(jia)指數(shu)為34.9，建筑(zhu)材(cai)料(liao)和設備(bei)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)指數(shu)為35.2，分包商(shang)造(zao)(zao)價(jia)指數(shu)為34.3，均位(wei)于50的基(ji)準指數(shu)之下。
建(jian)(jian)筑材料和設備(bei)(bei)(bei)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)為35.2，不僅(jin)顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)著該數(shu)(shu)(shu)值連續(xu)兩個(ge)月(yue)的(de)下(xia)跌，也表(biao)示(shi)該數(shu)(shu)(shu)值達到(dao)了歷(li)史新低(di)。調查顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)，與(yu)3月(yue)份相比，在建(jian)(jian)筑材料和設備(bei)(bei)(bei)12個(ge)分項(xiang)中，除(chu)預制混(hun)凝土價(jia)格(ge)(ge)處(chu)于基準指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)外，其(qi)余11項(xiang)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)均(jun)有(you)下(xia)跌。在建(jian)(jian)筑設備(bei)(bei)(bei)中，除(chu)轉換(huan)機外，其(qi)余設備(bei)(bei)(bei)的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)均(jun)從3月(yue)份的(de)上漲變成(cheng)了4月(yue)份的(de)下(xia)跌。結構(gou)鋼、合金(jin)鋼管、碳鋼管等材料的(de)價(jia)格(ge)(ge)更是達到(dao)了自2012年指(zhi)數(shu)(shu)(shu)調查開始以來的(de)最(zui)低(di)。而(er)目前調查顯(xian)(xian)示(shi)的(de)結果(guo)只表(biao)明4月(yue)份價(jia)格(ge)(ge)下(xia)跌，并不能確(que)定價(jia)格(ge)(ge)不會繼續(xu)探底。
“建筑(zhu)工(gong)程(cheng)造價(jia)指數的(de)快速(su)下滑反映出美國(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)的(de)快速(su)衰退，尤其是自1月份以來能源(yuan)行業(ye)的(de)衰退”，HIS Markit公(gong)司(si)價(jia)格和采購調研主管約翰·馬瑟索爾說，“HIS Markit公(gong)司(si)并不認為(wei)二(er)季度的(de)油價(jia)已經探底，這表明，美國(guo)(guo)經濟(ji)的(de)復蘇將會是一個漫(man)長的(de)過程(cheng)，將持續到2021年(nian)”。
分(fen)包(bao)商的(de)人(ren)力(li)成本(ben)指數3月(yue)份為52.0，4月(yue)份降(jiang)為34.3。與材料和(he)設備相同，美(mei)國和(he)加拿大的(de)人(ren)力(li)成本(ben)也均達到了自2012年(nian)指數調查開(kai)始以來的(de)最低(di)。
在(zai)經過連續43個(ge)月的(de)增(zeng)長后，建筑工程造(zao)價半(ban)年(nian)總體預(yu)期(qi)指(zhi)數于(yu)今年(nian)4月份(fen)首次下降，位于(yu)42.1，IHS Markit調(diao)查(cha)公司PEG小組(zu)進行此項調(diao)查(cha)追蹤(zong)后的(de)又一新低(di)。建筑材料、設備(bei)和人(ren)(ren)力(li)預(yu)期(qi)價格均下跌(die)。3月份(fen)，材料和設備(bei)的(de)半(ban)年(nian)預(yu)期(qi)指(zhi)數為57.6，4月份(fen)降為了40.7，其它所(suo)有(you)分項的(de)半(ban)年(nian)預(yu)期(qi)價格指(zhi)數也(ye)均下降。4月份(fen)的(de)人(ren)(ren)力(li)成本預(yu)期(qi)指(zhi)數為45.2，美國(guo)(guo)中(zhong)西部地區的(de)人(ren)(ren)力(li)成本價格有(you)望(wang)在(zai)接下來的(de)6個(ge)月內有(you)所(suo)增(zeng)長，西部地區仍舊不景(jing)氣，走勢平平，而在(zai)加拿大(da)、美國(guo)(guo)南(nan)(nan)部和東南(nan)(nan)部，人(ren)(ren)力(li)成本價格將繼續下跌(die)。
調查還發(fa)現，受新冠(guan)肺炎影響，建(jian)筑(zhu)市場需求有所縮減(jian)。（翻譯(yi)：中(zhong)國建(jian)筑(zhu)業協會）
COVID-19 Impact Sends Engineering and Construction Costs Negative for First Time Since November 2016, IHS Markit Says
文(wen)章(zhang)來源：IHS Markit 網站，Expectations for future construction costs reached all time low as respondents see negative cost pressures continuing through fall
April 29, 2020
NEW YORK (April 29, 2020) – After 41 consecutive monthly increases, Engineering and Construction costs fell in April, according to (NYSE: INFO) and the Procurement Executives Group (PEG). The current headline registered 34.9 in April, after staying barely neutral in March. The materials and equipment portion of the index came in at 35.2 and the sub-contractor portion came in at 34.3; any figure below 50 indicates falling prices.
The materials and equipment sub-index registered 35.2, recording both the second consecutive month of falling prices and an all-time low. Survey respondents reported falling prices for 11 out of the 12 components with only ready-mix prices coming in at neutral. Index figures for all categories dropped relative to March, indicating that a greater proportion of the respondents are observing lower prices. With the exception of exchangers, all equipment categories moved from increasing prices in March to falling prices in April. For categories such as fabricated steel, alloy steel pipe and carbon steel pipe, April’s diffusion index reading was the lowest since the survey started in 2012. This does not mean that respondents saw the lowest prices in April, merely that most companies surveyed observed falling prices.
“The sharp decline recorded in the index highlights the rapid deterioration in the U.S. economy and, more specifically, in the energy industry since January,” said , director of research at IHS Markit pricing and purchasing. “IHS Markit does see a bottom for oil prices in the second quarter. This said, the recovery in the U.S. economy looks to be sluggish and extend well into 2021.”
The sub-index for current subcontractor labor costs came in at 34.3 in April. Responders had noted rising prices in March, with an index figure of 52.0. Labor costs fell in all regions of the United States as well as Canada. Similar to materials and equipment sub-index, this was the lowest ever reading since the survey started in 2012.
After 43 months of consecutive increases, the six-month headline expectations for future construction costs fell in April with an index figure of 42.1, yet another all-time low for the IHS Markit PEG Engineering and Construction Cost Index. Both the materials/equipment and labor subcomponents recorded expectations of future price decreases. The six-month materials and equipment expectations index came in at 40.7 this month, down from 57.6 last month, with responders expecting falling prices for all categories. Expectations for sub-contractor labor slipped to 45.2 in April. While the U.S. Midwest is expected to see higher labor costs in six months, labor costs are expected to stay flat in the U.S. West. Labor costs in Canada, U.S. South and U.S. Northeast are expected to keep falling.
In the survey comments, respondents noted lower demand conditions due to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19).
